As governments around the globe battle to contain the spread of covid-19, the role of public health has been brought into stark focus. Iran, crippled by US sanctions and without some of the most basic pubic health infrastructures, has seen infection rates increase exponentially. Economically secure nations aren’t safe either. Italy has some of the highest infection rates in Europe thanks, in part, to a bungled containment roll-out in its public health sector.  If we’re to have any hope of averting a global pandemic, fast, back-to-basics treatment and education will be required from the public sector.

In public health, honesty is worth a lot more than hope. It has become clear in the past week that the new viral disease, covid-19, which struck China at the start of December will spread around the world. Many governments have been signalling that they will stop the disease. Instead, they need to start preparing people for the onslaught.

Officials will have to act when they do not have all the facts, because much about the virus is unknown. A broad guess is that 25-70% of the population of any infected country may catch the disease. China’s experience suggests that, of the cases that are detected, roughly 80% will be mild, 15% will need treatment in hospital and 5% will require intensive care. Experts say that the virus may be five to ten times as lethal as seasonal flu, which, with a fatality rate of 0.1%, kills 60,000 Americans in a bad year. Across the world, the death toll could be in the millions.

-The Economist, Leaders Feb 27th 2020 edition